The Feasibility and Market Impact of a Renewables-Dominated Future in a Competitive Power Market
(Room Garuda 7A, 1st Floor)
19 Sep 18
9:30 AM
-
11:00 AM
Tracks:
TRACK G - Renewable Energy Strategy & Technology
New build of renewable power generation and battery storage has recently exceeded most expectations, with costs undercutting those of conventional thermal generation. Until recently, when considering the long-term outlook for most Asian electricity markets, it was generally assumed that thermal generation (typically coal- or LNG-fired) would provide the bulk of new build, with renewables and batteries playing a minor, subsidized role. It is now reasonable to consider a scenario where most new build is renewable, and even where renewables force the economic retirement of existing thermal plant. In this paper, we answer the questions: How fast, and to what extent could this be expected to happen? What are the implications for market participants and market design? We look at economic, technical and resource limitations and technology price trends, and provide a plausible scenario for a renewables-dominated future, using the Philippines power market as an example. We then examine the impact of a renewables-dominated future on market outcomes for new and existing market participants, using market simulations. We also consider whether existing market designs cope with a dominance of low marginal cost generation and discuss market design solutions to support the renewables transition.