The Mystery of the Missing Production
(Room Sunset IV - V)
28 Feb 17
12:10 PM
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12:35 PM
The following is a true story, although names and details may be changed to protect the confidential.
During the first year of operations of a ~20 MW wind farm, the owner has found that 35% of production is missing, compared to the budget. They called us in to investigate the forensic data and shed some light on this mystery.
Our data detectives dove deep into the SCADA records and deployed a number of different methods and tools. This presentation will highlight the real-world potential for this kind of SCADA data analysis, focusing on several case studies:
1. Identifying underpredictions in the forecast model being used to compensate for curtailment;
2. Detecting a control algorithm error, which has led to underperformance;
3. Spotting issues in the availability reporting;
4. Investigating the impact of other site-specific parameters; and
5. Correcting for the actual wind regime, as compared to long-term trends.
Each of the identified culprits accounted for part of the lost production, and led to actionable intelligence to resolve the problems and improve future production.