Energy World in 2040: Understanding INDCs Perspectives and Challenges
(Room Rheinsaal 3)
28 Jun 17
11:00 AM
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12:30 PM
Tracks:
Track A - Strategies for Change
The energy world is in rapid evolution driven in particular by policy developments (like the INDCs agreed at COP-21) but also economic, geopolitical, technological as well as social considerations. Enerdata regularly produces scenario based energy outlooks to analyze and forecast the supply & demand of energy commodities, energy prices, as well as the impact of climate change and energy policies on energy markets and their consequences for the energy industry. After the COP-21 in Paris, Enerdata has again done such an exercise. The Ener-Blue scenario provides an outlook of energy systems up to 2040 based on the achievement of the 2030 targets defined in the INDCs as announced at the COP-21. Ener-Green explores the implications of more stringent energy and climate policies to limit the global temperature increase at around 1.5-2°C by the end of the century. Finally, Ener-Brown describes a world with durably low fossil fuel energy prices, affecting the entire energy system over a long period. These different scenarios explore the consequences on energy supply and demand, energy mix, energy prices by fuel and region, as well as the implications on climate issues. The paper will present in detail some results reltated to the Ener-Blue scenario (INDCs), its impacts on different energy sources and geographical regions, as well as its challenges in implementation. It will also show what additional commitments are needed to move from the Ener-Blue to the Ener-Green (2°C) scenario, and it will present the consequences of a scenario (Ener-Brown) where - due to an abbondance of cheap hydrocarbon resources - these continue to be used large scale, even though in parallel important efforts are done as far as sustainable development is concerned.