Power System Flexibility: The Key to a Cleaner Future in Southeast Asia
(Room Nile 1)
20 Sep 17
9:00 AM
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10:30 AM
Tracks:
Track E - Integration, Storage and Distributed Generation
Increased penetration of renewables in Southeast Asia can produce environmental and economic benefits, but it can also introduce operational challenges and constraints at the system level. To quantify a key set of these challenges and assess potential mitigations, we model increasing renewables (solar and wind) penetration levels in selected Southeast Asia countries (Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, Vietnam) using Pöyry’s electricity market model, which models economic dispatch of all plants in a region, subject to system- and plant-level technical/operating constraints, fuel price forecasts, contractual arrangements, and other market-specific factors. As the amount of renewables in a system grows, the combined volatility of the renewables output can overwhelm the ability of dispatchable generators to respond and “fill in the gaps”, given their ramp rates and other operating constraints – potentially causing renewables curtailment. The first analysis examines, for each of the selected countries, how potential curtailment rises with increasing renewables penetration, including an indication of the level of renewables penetration that would cause “unacceptable” amounts of curtailment. One approach to minimizing renewables-driven curtailment is to introduce additional flexibility (in the form of fast-ramping energy storage, demand response, etc.) into the system. In the second analysis, we quantify what level of additional flexibility would be needed – and what the associated costs would be – to achieve particular renewables penetration goals while limiting renewables curtailment to “acceptable” levels. We model several scenarios to provide insight into the range of potential costs. This paper provides insight into an important potential barrier to increased renewables penetration in Southeast Asia, thereby informing policy-makers, investors, and others with a stake in the long-term evolution – and sustainability – of power systems in the region.