UK’s Electricity from Wind Analyses: When the Wind was not Blowing in 2014 and What Will Happen in 2020
(Room G102-G103, Auditorium Centre, First Floor)
09 Jun 15
4:00 PM
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5:30 PM
Tracks:
Theme: Flexing the Power of Gas
Under the DIRECTIVE 2009/28/EC on the promotion of the use of energy from renewable sources UK has been set a target of 15% for the share of energy from renewable sources in gross final consumption of energy for 2020. The Department of Energy and Climate Change has set the goal of over 30% for the country’s electricity to be generated from renewable sources.
The paper offers the analyses of the UK’s electricity projections that have been put forward by various stakeholders: the National Grid’s UK Future Energy Scenarios, Ofgem’s Electricity Capacity Assessment Report and Parsons Brinckerhoff’s own practical assessment of planned and consented power plants.
A unique way of presenting the data is given using Capacity Energy (CapEn) Staircase for 2014 and 2020.
In 2013, UK’s wind energy delivered (metered data only) to the grid was approximately 18.6 TWh or 5.9% of the total electricity demand for that year. However, the annual statistics hide the stark reality of the fact that wind does not blow all the time. The data and graphs presented show the harsh contrast between the “windiest” and “calmest” days in 2014. Projections for the installed nameplate wind capacity in 2020 vary for different scenarios and three-fold increase on current levels have been quoted, i.e. 30 GW.
What will such days look like in 2020? What will fill the future energy gap? What about the carbon emissions? This paper addresses these questions for various scenarios and a range of assumptions for UK’s energy mix.
With the Electricity Market Reform no longer lingering on the horizon, but in progress with the launch of the Capacity Auction at the end of 2014, the paper also analyses the role of the conventional technologies in “filling the wind gap”. Will the UK government and ultimately public pay for wind twice: firstly in subsidies to the renewable technology and secondly through capacity market gone wrong? Or will the right balance be struck?